Organic food shopping
When it comes to food, it is a lot about habits. Changing our eating habits is both a question of our willingness and our ability to do so. Willingness relates to individual and social values while ability relates to prosperity. Organic food sales in a country provide a good gauge of how conscious consumers are about what they eat. It covers both the willingness aspect, as these consumers care about how their food is produced, as well as the ability aspect, as they are paying more than for non-organic food. Unsurprisingly, the share of organic food is the highest in prosperous developed countries, reaching up to 10%. Growth in organic food sales in Germany, Switzerland and the United States has outpaced growth of total food sales by a factor of 10 since the beginning of the century. However, organic food is not just a demand-driven story. Statistics show that prices of organic milk and meat are not just higher but also less volatile, thereby providing a higher and more stable income for producers. Organic food is thus a win-win story for producers and consumers, leaving a lot of room for growth.

Alternative dairy: a long story           
Alternative dairy is actually not a new trend. Almond milk supposedly originated in the 13th century, and was first referenced in Egyptian cookbooks; soymilk was discovered in China around 1350. Since then, a lot has happened. Consumption of dairy milk has been declining for quite some time, especially in developed markets like the US or Western Europe. While the trend is a little bit different in emerging markets due to increasing prosperity, consumption is far from booming and worldwide it is definitely in decline.

In contrast to that, plant-based dairy consumption has been steadily increasing as consumers are starting to replace cow milk with soy, almond, oat, rice, or other alternatives. The reasons for this shift are three-fold: environmental concerns, health concerns, and increased care for animal welfare. Even if milk is often considered to be a key part of children’s nutrition digesting it properly is more and more difficult as we are getting older. Many people develop lactose intolerance. Lactose, a sugar found in milk and other dairy products, is normally broken down by an enzyme called lactase, which is produced by cells in the lining of the small intestine. Lactose intolerance is caused by a reduced production of lactase after infancy and leads to abdominal pain.

Alternative dairy: not always sustainable

One needs more than 70 litres of water to produce one glass of almond milk. Additionally, almonds are linked to a high death ratio of bees, because they are drafted commercially to pollinate the crops. Rice milk also requires a large amount of water and the crop produces more methane and greenhouse gases than any other plant-based milk ingredient. While coconut milk’s environmental footprint is comparably low, it is mostly grown in countries with extremely poor working conditions, which may lead to an exploitation of the pickers. Even though soymilk performs quite well sustainability wise and also contains a large amount of protein, it is problematic that soy is grown in massive quantities to feed livestock and is thus associated with the destruction of large parts of the Amazon rainforests. Oats are known as a low-input crop and contain large amounts of protein as well. This means oats per se are good for the environment and the human body. If there is any downside to oat milk it is the fact that most oats are grown in mass-produced industrial agricultural operations, where they are largely sprayed with controversial herbicides. Balancing all elements, we see oat milk having an edge over other alternatives from an environmental point of view.

Plant-based meat: good for animals

Meat consumption has started to show signs of stagnation after having more than doubled since the 1980s, again reflecting environmental, human health and animal welfare concerns. According to scientific studies, meat is related to a higher risk of obesity due to its high energy and fat content, increasing the risk of developing illnesses such as cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, and kidney malfunction. Additionally, red meat was classified as ‘probably carcinogenic to humans’ and processed meat as ‘carcinogenic to humans’ by the World Health Organisation (WHO). Mass meat production has risen rapidly over the last decades, benefiting from the discovery of vitamins, antibiotics, and vaccinations to facilitate farming in larger numbers while reducing disease in the livestock. Pictures of thousands of animals living in tight spaces, not seeing any daylight, or having any room to move, decreases people’s craving for meat more and more.

All in all, plant-based meat is better for the planet than for human health due to its highly processed nature with lots of ingredients, meaning consuming a plant-based burger is not equal to a healthy diet. Plant-based meat is still a premium product. One pound of factory-farmed beef burger at the supermarket can cost as little as USD 2.85, whereas one pound of a plant-based alternative still costs around USD 8. Today’s premium prices need to come down to change our grocery shopping basket.

Lab-grown meat: the game changer?

Lab-grown meat is a promising innovation which uses a “tissue-culture technology”: animal cells are regenerated based on a single cell as the source. This process produces tissue that resembles animal muscle and has about the same protein profile. Considering that cell culturing is a sterile process, lab-grown meat comes with the advantage that no antibiotics are needed. According to Bloomberg, more than 70 start-ups globally are working on everything from beef burgers to chicken thighs, pork chops to bluefin tuna. Some estimates suggest that lab-grown meat will take over a 35% share of the USD 1.8 trillion global meat market by 2040. But before that transition happens, it still has some significant hurdles to overcome. First of all there is the texture. While products like a lab-grown burger patty will soon be able to taste and feel almost identical to their slaughtered antipode, it is still a big challenge to recreate the fibres and the texture of the original product, such as a chicken breast or steak. Secondly, there is the price. Lab-grown meat is even more expensive than plant-based meat due to its high costs of production. As long as producers are unable to cut prices significantly, lab-grown meat will not be able to conquer the mass market.

Conclusion: Are we ready for this?

It is time to change our eating habits. This has never been easier than today as from a nutritional point of view, all the alternatives are available. However, this is unlikely to happen over night as changing our eating habits is easier said than done, primarily because our food is rooted so deeply in our culture. Above all, it thus requires a change of mindset to follow the future of food best practices.